Conservative Base Fracturing?

This video is very interesting, and it's one of many that you can find across Youtube of popular conservative icons slating their own frontrunner, Senator John McCain. Ann Coulter goes so far in this video to say that if McCain is the nominee then Clinton has her vote! (Which if you know anything about Ann Coulter, is the equivalent admission of hell itself freezing over).

There has been a lot of chatter about the way in which the normally disciplined Republican Party has been fracruting because of this presidential contest. It seems that none of the candidates appeal to every wing of the party, and from the fund-raising totals the idea that Democrats are much more excited about their possibilities this year is borne out (2 Democrats out-raised 4 Republicans in the past quarter...and even over the past year.)

Is this potential fracturing of the base a problem for Republicans? Well, it's a problem for conservatives because they don't like John McCain and think that he's a liberal or too much of a maverick on too many issues. They'll give him a frosty polite reception at the convention if he's the nominee, and promptly ignore the rest of the election.

They obviously perceive this to be a bad thing, and something that will hurt their chances in November because if they can't get excited then their nominee won't get elected. But...is conservative disdain for McCain actually to his advantage? Let's face it, the conservative base of the Republican Party are the group that elected George W Bush and defeated John McCain in 2000. They're connected to the Bush legacy because that's the kind of candidate they want. The country, from the seeming success of the Democrats so far this year, does not want another Bush.

So perhaps it's good for John McCain that he's rejected by the conservative base of the Republican Party. It allows him to be a moderate Republican candidate who *isn't* George W. Bush, and so rather than pandering to a group that hates and has already rejected him, he can fight with the Democrat over the voters in the center. This year they're trending Democrat, and if they do then the Republicans lose whoever their nominee is. A conservative Republican has lost that center almost for sure. A moderate one has a fighting chance, which is borne out by the polls that show John McCain best placed to defeat a Democrat in November.

The result? The choices for VP are wide open, in some ways. There's been chatter about Giuliani VP since they're so chummy on the campaign trail right now, but the common wisdom says to reject that because McCain would need a conservative to balance the ticket, not a *more* liberal Republican. But if the base is lost (they'll probably still vote for him in November, though they won't like it) and the center is where the fight is at, then a McCain/Giuliani ticket is less absurd than it originally sounded. But only a little less absurd.

(ADDENDUM: You certainly know that something unusual is going on when the following ad becomes necessary:)