Super Tuesday - The Republicans

Tonight also hasn't given us a decisive nominee on the Republican side. However, having said that, it's definitely more decisive for the Republicans - John McCain is the front-runner and he's probably on track to nomination. Inevitable it is not yet completely so, but we're getting closer to seeing a nomination of Senator John McCain.

The story of the night on the Republican side, though, is not really about McCain, though there are some interesting features of his running this evening, but rather Mike Huckabee. Let's see who won what and then talk a little more about this:

John McCain - Arizona, California, Conneticut, Delaware, Illionois, Missouri, New Jersey and New York.

Mitt Romney - Colorado, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Montana, North Dakota, Oklahoma and Utah.

Mike Huckabee - Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Tennessee and West Virginia.

Mike Huckabee scored very well in the South, though is appeal doesn't extend very far beyond that point. He ate away from Romney a lot, because Romney wanted to be the choice of Southern conservatives but Huckabee beat him in a lot of the big southern states - Alabama, Georgia and Tennessee. With very little money Huckabee has taken quite a few big contests, whereas with all the money in the world Mitt Romney was not able to score any big victories. He didn't win in California, which is the only 'big prize' where it looked like he could have been competitive.

I would be about to announce that Mitt Romney should withdraw (well, that's nothing new from me - I don't like him enough that I think he should have withdrawn ages ago!) and probably been right about it...except for the fact that John McCain still can't get it together amongst conservatives. In states like Missouri, which he won, he still came third amongst self-described conservative voters. McCain wins because moderates support him in droves, even when they hold different positions on wedge issues (anti-war moderate Republicans support McCain. Confused? I imagine so are they!) He won't pull out though, because there's still slim hope that he can rally conservatives around him and ride the surge of some kind of anti-McCain backlash.

But I think Romney's circling the drain. No doubt that Huckabee is also, but he's done much better than expected (even though it won't be enough), whereas Romney has under-performed in a lot of places. I look forward to his eventual withdrawal.

Anyone want to start offering predictions for Mini-Super-Tuesday on March 4th?