Clinton and McCain Win New Hampshire!

Well isn't that interesting... Okay, I hold my hands up and admit it, I was sucked in the giant media meta-narrative for a few days, and New Hampshire has provided a collective 'snap out', at least as far as the Democratic race goes. Once again we see Iowa doesn't matter all that much, and it's possible for anything to happen in these races above and beyond what the media claims. Damn, I'm a little disappointed in myself that I got duped - but I wanted to believe in Obama now and ignored the history of the primary process. It makes things very interesting in both races, and means that we won't see a king-making on either side! Things are going to get seriously interesting getting into South Carolina and Nevada, and then into Super-Duper Tuesday.

The Republicans are on course for anything to happen. There are four candidates who could come away with the nomination at this point, no one seems particularly strong (and very few seem particularly weak.) I think we could end up with something messy on the Republican side - each candidate has their niche support and a lot of the upcoming states cater to different niches, which means I think that this situation of multiple runners (can't call them 'front-runners' - there are too many) will continue at least going into February 5th.

Right, now let's look at the individual candidates. (95% of precincts reporting.)

DEMOCRATS

Hillary Clinton - 39% - By pulling off a very close first place finish she did what she needed to do to restore a lot of the faith in her that was disintegrating or abandoning to other candidates. It was by no means a decisive victory, just 2%, but it was enough to make this a real fight to the nomination. Clinton still did poorly amongst voters most interested in change, and managed to score big amongst blue-collar die-hard Democrats, women and older voters, of which New Hampshire has a lot (and so do a lot of the upcoming primary states.) She scored much better than Obama on experience and on the economy, which is fast becoming a big issue in this election. She needs to examine why she succeeded in New Hampshire and play to those strengths. Clearly she's not going to win over the 'change' voters, but that may not matter when many of those voters are independents who will be shut out of upcoming closed primaries. She hasn't restored front-runner status, but come into equal contention with Barack Obama going into Nevada and South Carolina.

Barack Obama - 37% - A close second but second place nonetheless. He's got to be smarting about how wrong the pollsters called this one (even the moving average of all polls, the Poll of All Polls, which tends to be fairly accurate had Obama up by 4 and I'm sure there'll be a lot of examination as to why those polls turned out to be off the mark). However, the Obama Movement isn't over yet, it's just going to be harder for him to pull it off. And it may mean that both campaigns start resorting to politics as usual to sell their messages, and I really don't want to see that from the Democrats. It disappoints me from the Republicans, but it would hurt a lot of people if the Democratic race went negative. The gap between Nevada and South Carolina could be uuuggggllllyyyy.

John Edwards - 17% - He said tonight on Larry King Live how this contest proved the race was still wide open, but I'm not too sure how open it is for Edwards. He's pledged to remain in the race because he feels he's giving a voice to those who have traditionally been neglected and because 99% of the American people have yet to weigh in on the process, but two non-victories shows how unlikely it is that those other 99% will be moved in any significant ways. The Edwards campaign is far from over, but I think he's now out of the nomination race.

Bill Richardson - 5% - Once again, very disappointing for Richardson. He's returning to New Mexico to reassess the campaign, and I think a withdrawal will come from it. He's the Governor of New Mexico, and he needs to tend to his state.

Dennis Kucinich - 1% - You're done, Congressman.

REPUBLICANS

John McCain - 37% - This race went much more as expected. McCain came away with the win, proving the doubters of the summer wrong. They wrote his campaign off and he said 'Well then we'll go to New Hampshire and prove you wrong', and that's what he did. He should be particularly impressed because, though being associated with support for the Iraq War it was Romney who got the support of the few remaining Bush supporters. This was the easiest state for John McCain to win because he did it in 2000 and it best fits the contours of his political ideology. It's given him a big boost going into future states, but it doesn't make it much easier to pull them around to supporting him as a front-runner. South Carolina, once again, becomes the place where McCain must next prove himself.

Mitt Romney - 32% - Oh dear. He spent more money than all of his opponents combined on the New Hampshire race...and he lost. Two losses in a row based upon a strategy that completely revolved around two victories in a row does not bode well for the tail-spinning Romney campaign. He has too much money to give up, and at a third of the vote he shouldn't because there's still a small chance, but I hope he's not too much longer for this race.

Mike Huckabee - 11% - In a state he was not expected to do at all well in, to come third is big for Mike Huckabee going into South Carolina. It definitely puts him in top contention out of all the Republican runners, because he has impressive showings in two states (which is one more than any other candidate.) Needs to keep this up in South Carolina and win there if he is to really become the front-runner though.

Rudy Giuliani - 9% - He's still in it, much more so than if one candidate had won both states. He's got to be very pleased that Romney didn't win Iowa and New Hampshire big and was now moving onto Giuliani's turf with the Big Mo. As we get closer to Florida we'll see much more of Giuliani and be able to review how well hi strategy will work. I still think it's not a hopeless strategy.

Ron Paul - 8% - A little less than expected for Paul, but it's enough of a showing to mean that his supporters justify his presence in the race. And it's on to the next stop.

Fred Thompson - 1% - He won't give up, I don't think, because he's painting South Carolina as his final stand. But he won't over-perform there so he's effectively done. He's out after South Carolina.

Duncan Hunter - 0% - Perhaps re-considering staying in the race. I certainly would.