Tomorrow's New Hampshire Primary

Voters head to the polls tomorrow for the first in the nation primary in New Hampshire. The stakes are incredibly high for some candidates, with the contest tomorrow representing what is probably make or break time for their campaigns. This is an important contest tomorrow for a lot of reasons, particularly to do with the expectations facing a lot of candidates.

So let's have a look at the different candidates and see what the stakes are:

DEMOCRATS

Barack Obama - He's got to be feeling pretty good right now. For Obama, tomorrow's result won't threaten him immensely. If he wins it becomes even more likely that he's the nominee. If he loses, then it's on to South Carolina for the next round of the battle. From the most recent polls it's possible that Obama will win in New Hampshire, which would help him show that he is likely to be the nominee going into South Carolina and Super-Duper Tuesday.

Hillary Clinton - She has to win to remain a front-runner, otherwise she slips decisively into second place and then has a huge amount of work to do to pull things back. If she wins then it's a proper contest between these two candidates. One took Iowa, one took New Hampshire - the jury's out on who wins and we move on to the next contest. If she loses, it comes hard for her to reassert herself and clinch nomination. The momentum would move away from her and towards Obama decisively.

John Edwards - He's said in recent days he's in it to the convention, but if that's not to be a nonsense proposal he needs a second place win at minimum. Even with that second place, it still doesn't mean he's going to be the nominee, just that he has reason to continue the fight. If he's going to be the nominee he's going to need to win here really, waiting until South Carolina isn't enough. And that's not going to happen.

Bill Richardson - Needs to pull off a surprise upset over Edwards to get a ticket to move on. It's not going to happen, though. He may remain in the race and put that last sliver of hope on the Nevada caususes, but it won't amount to much.

REPUBLICANS

John McCain - He needs to win to throw himself into contention, and it looks like he's going to be able to pull it off. It makes him a player in the process and gives him some doubt that the campaign everyone had written off in the summer still has a shot at becoming the Republican nominee. If he doesn't win in the state that seems to appeal most to McCain, it's very difficult to justify his continued presence in the race.

Mitt Romney - If he loses tomorrow he's done. He's sunk so much money into the two early states and he's probably going to lose both of them. He's spent more in New Hampshire than all of his competitors *combined*. If he can't win by spending that much money, then he's not going to be the nominee and he's wasted a significant chunk of his personal fortune on being an ass on national TV. I won't regret seeing Romney leave the race. Not one little bit.

Mike Huckabee - If he comes in the top four he's still in it going into South Carolina without damage. If he's in the top three it makes him more of a front-runner, because he ended up doing unexpectedly well in a state that isn't a natural fit for him and has an advantage going into Michigan and South Carolina. If he comes outside the top four then he's slightly damaged, but won't be going anywhere until later contests.

Fred Thompson - Has written off New Hampshire and is putting all his eggs in South Carolina's basket. I don't know how wise that is. If he's in the top four he's drawing breath. Lower and his nomination is written off.

Rudy Giuliani - See Thompson. He has the same problems, except he's waiting longer to Florida. He's seemed a little out of the fray it in the past couple of debates, and you can see that because none of the other candidates really went out of their way to criticise him and take him down. Needs a top four win otherwise he's damaged (though not as much as Thompson will be.)

Ron Paul - He has the capacity to surprise, but whatever he polls he's in this for however long he wants. His band of followers are too dedicated to let him pull out except on his own terms.