John McCain - From New Hampshire, Anywhere?

John McCain scored a big win in New Hampshire last night, proving many pundits wrong when they wrote of his campaign last summer. They said he was out of the race before it started, but McCain proved that he still has plenty of life left in him. New Hampshire came through for John McCain, as it needed to, in order to keep him in the race and prove the possibility of McCain winning the nomination.

But can McCain take things further than New Hampshire? That's something I'm going to have to be more doubtful about. He won in New Hampshire, but for John McCain this was by far the easiest state to win in. The New Hampshire crowd, with their 'Live Free or Die' mentality and independent nature (44% of New Hampshire voters are independents), resonate easily with McCain, whose maverick image has never quite gone away. McCain doesn't fit with the party regulars, particularly obvious when he was the establishment front-runner and chafed in this position, and that's why New Hampshire loves him. He's as independent as they are.

Unfortunately, New Hampshire is something of an oddity on the national level. It is the only state without a state-level income tax and as we have seen contains a large section of vociferous independents. This is not true nationwide, and it's a problem that Barack Obama also faces. Primary rules in most states do not allow independents, McCain's main audience, to participate in the Republican primaries. Registered Republicans aren't so hot on McCain, though they're hotter than some of the other candidates. His independent streak isn't as endearing in South Carolina as it is in New Hampshire, so I wonder whether McCain can translate his victory into further momentum.

The voters of New Hampshire don't like to be told that they just affirm the decisions of Iowa, and later states don't like being told that they just affirm the decision of New Hampshire. If NH can vote radically differently from Iowa, then so can South Carolina, and Florida, and California, and New York, and Texas...

Is McCain's victory the start of a trend? We'll see...but I doubt it. I think McCain's done a stellar job proving the doubters wrong, but I don't think he's going to take the nomination because he now runs head-first into the rest of the Republican Party, who were never his biggest fans. Which is unfortunate, because I'd love to see him get the chance to go national in a General Election campaign because I like McCain. I think he'd be good for America. But I don't think he'll win.

Which really leaves...who? Well that's the big question Republican voters up and down the country are asking. It may be a long time until they decisively make up their mind and let the rest of us know.