Tonight's Iowa Caucus

The sun is rising this morning on a cold and frigid Iowa. After nearly a year of intense campaigning, town-hall meetings, cook-outs, living room meet and greets, it's all about to come to an end. The 2008 election season kicks off properly tonight, and there are a lot of nervous candidates and staff running around. The truth is that they've now said all that they can. What happens next is out of their hands - none of the candidates, except for perhaps Chris Dodd who now lives in Iowa, can participate in the caucuses and even if they did it probably wouldn't matter that much! Their supporters; the rabid, the enthusiastic and the mildly indifferent now have the power, in so far as the results of the Iowa Caucus goes, to make or break a few candidates.

For the front-runners this is just the beginning of a journey that will last at least until February 5th. But for some candidates the caucuses tonight will most likely spell the end of their campaigns, and we're sure to see some withdrawals within the next week. Iowa has the capacity to boost a candidate into contention and damage a candidate going into the next few primaries. They can't make or break front-runners, as I have discussed before, but they do have an influence. And they're first.

What are the candidates hoping for this evening and what are their prospects?

DEMOCRATS

Hillary Clinton - If Hillary doesn't win in Iowa tonight she's going to be damaged. She's a tough lady and she has a lot of money, so she'll survive it and will probably shrug it off as a blip along the way to her nomination. She's still the national front-runner, and that matters a great deal. However it will take some of the sheen off her 'incumbent' image, much more so than the recent media frenzy about the growing dog-fight between Clinton and Obama.

Barack Obama - He sure is hoping for a win, because it puts him in real contention in the media coverage. He gets his face on the cover of TIME and Newsweek under the banner of 'Barack Obama - The Next President?' and the hype trends his way. It's then going to be an actual dog-fight to turn that hype into a usurpation of Clinton's nomination going into New Hampshire.

John Edwards - Needs a win or at the very least to come second. He could pull it off, he's been closing the gap in the past few weeks and resonates very well with the Middle American voters who make up the majority of the Iowa Caucus-goers. If he comes third or below (though below is really unlikely) he's very damaged, and may only have to look forward to a second shot at the VP ticket, or a run for another office.

Bill Richardson - Though he's probably got the fourth spot, which is still a very dim shot at the Presidency, it's unlikely he pulls out yet. He'll want to see what happens in some of the Western primaries, where as Governor of New Mexico he's likely to do better and get some national attention because of it. I think he'll stick around for a little while after Iowa.

Joe Biden - He could pull off an upset into fourth. If he doesn't, it's over. Biden's a good man, and would make a good President, and perhaps if he'd run four years ago he would have been the nominee, but this year there are too many powerful and unique personalities for him to get a look in.

Chris Dodd - Doesn't have anything that really makes him special. I think he'll withdraw after tonight.

Dennis Kucinich - Never had a chance. Gone after tonight.

Mike Gravel - I think he probably left before tonight, but has yet to tell anyone.

THE REPUBLICANS

Mitt Romney - Facing a fight in New Hampshire with John McCain he needs a win tonight. If he wins he looks stronger going into New Hampshire. If he loses then McCain could capitalise on the weakness and shut him out of NH in the same way that Huckabee is looking to shut him out here in Iowa. If he comes second in Iowa and New Hampshire he may stay in the race up until Super-Duper Tuesday, but his run is almost over.

Mike Huckabee - If he wins he has a chance at gaining the national recognition and momentum he needs. It's going to be tough to do it in the short time before the next contests, but he may, just may, be able to pull it off. He's not doing very well in New Hampshire, where the voters don't react as well to his style, and so he could fall there. Plus if he wins Iowa he comes into the firing line of candidates like Giuliani and even McCain (who up and until this point has been nothing but friendly towards Huckabee) who may feel threatened in primaries that they are banking on.

John McCain - Wants to place third, to prove that he's resurgent. A third place finish in a state that has never liked McCain all that much would show that McCain is back in the Big Three, and give him strength and confdence to go the distance in New Hampshire and turn things his way. I think Romney will start ignoring Huckabee after Iowa and go on the full attack on McCain, who then becomes his biggest threat.

Rudy Giuliani - He wants not to do terribly. He gave up on Iowa back in the first half of this year when he decided to skip the Ames Staw Poll, and has spent very little time campaigning there since. He's banking on the later states, particularly Florida and the Super-Duper Tuesday states to nominate him, as they hold significantly more delegates than Iowa or New Hampshire. But he needs not to be written off by the media following these two nomination contests, and therefore his desire should be not to do terribly.

Fred Thompson - If he comes third, I think he's still alive going into New Hampshire. He's not going to be the nominee, but he gets to play a little longer. If he comes lower than third, he's done, and the Thompson bubble disappears into history. Has there been a bigger disappointment from a single candidate expected to do well?

Ron Paul - I don't know what his game is. He's going to chart in the high single digits because he has a committed band of internet followers and he has too much money not to chart on the radar at some level. But he's too far off the Republican mainstream to turn it into much. Perhaps an independent candidacy? He has the fringe support to make it to work and to become a player, though an unlikely President.

Duncan Hunter - Not a factor. After tonight he should be done, though he's lasted much longer than other more viable candidates who withdrew (Brownback, Tancredo) and so he just seems to be hanging on for the kicks and minimal attention. His son certainly now has plenty of cash to win the seat he's retiring.