John Edwards - King Maker

This race is so much about hypotheticals. So often by this point the whole thing is predictable, and we can tell exactly why someone lost and someone won. We can't with this most fascinating presidential race, which makes things both incredibly exciting but also frustrating (pundits like to be able to tell you with absolute certainty what will happen.) I look back through the 3 weeks of this blog and find that so much changes. But my message throughout seems to have always been 'We'll know more after [insert state name here]'s primary.'

Well, with this next theory about Edwards we'll only know after Super Tuesday, but as this race seems to convert from the standard presidential race in which one candidate emerges from the pack and surges to nomination, to one in which two candidates will be totalling their delegates and running level beyond Super Tuesday noone knows how far, it seems an appropriate time to talk about John Edwards.

Edwards has said that he's in the race for the long run. I like this, because as last night's debate showed it's important he be on the stage. It's important to have a third candidate crystallising the issues and keeping the others honest. Edwards showed how stupid Clinton and Obama's bickering was last night, and someone had to, because Wolf Blitzer wasn't in a position to do so.

He's also picking up delegates. As long as he doesn't continue to do as badly as in Nevada, he'll end up with a chunk of delegates because most of the Democratic primary campaigns assign delegates based upon the proportion of the debate that they receive. That could make Edwards a king maker if neither Clinton nor Obama have enough delegates to put them over the threshold (about 2,000) and clinch the nomination. He could perform a coronation of one of the candidates and get a lot of his agenda through this effort. It'd be the kind of brokering we haven't seen since the 1960s. Which is why it's fascinating!

I want John Edwards to stay in the race. I also want John Edwards to be the VP candidate of whichever of the two front-runners eventually gets the nomination. I think he deserves it, and neither Clinton nor Obama deserve each other to support them after the last couple of weeks of fighting.

Damn, can you sense the same tinge of anger I have that Obama is getting his hands dirty? This is probably an issue for another post, since I also recognise that in some ways he can't avoid it... but...It hurts a little. I want to believe. It's annoying me that my belief in Obama is being confused by the arguments. Politics, huh?